After facing back to back setbacks in Bihar, first in state assembly election of 2015 and then by parting of one of its important allies RLSP in 2018, there has been a considerable change in BJP strategy for the upcoming Lok Sabha elections. The changes in the strategy can be easily observed by BJP stance of distributing numerous seats to its allies i.e. 17 Seats to JDU and 6 to LJP out of their total 40 seats.
In 2014 general elections, BJP contested over 29 seats and won 22 of them, while its ally LJP contested over 7 and won 6 seats. However, RLSP also won 3 seats in 2014 election as part of NDA, but now its loyalty belongs to the grand alliance of Bihar i.e. the Mahagathbandhan.
Parties Seats won
BJP 22
Indian National Congress 2
NCP 1
JDU 2
LJP 6
RJD 4
RLSP 3
RLSP chief Upendar Kushwaha parted ways from NDA and joined the grand alliance after the seat distribution rift in 2018.
Having quoted the defeat of 2015 state elections of Bihar as an “eye-opener”, Amit Shah rectified his previous mistakes by keeping their partners elated and content over the number of seats.
Although one of the advantages BJP didn’t have during the last election was the support of “Sushasan Babu” of Bihar i.e. Nitish Kumar. It was one of the major reasons of BJP losing the 2015 state elections.
The Mahagathbandhan has also been done with the seat distribution phase with RJD participating over 20 seats, Indian National Congress on 11 and RLSP on 3.
Rift Among Allies Over Agenda
RJD who call themselves more secular in nature than the right-wing BJP, has been experiencing some conflict with INC based on quota factors and their campaign “Berozgari Hatao, Aarakshan Badhao” (end employment, raise quota). Not only RJD and INC but also BJP and JDU are not on the same page over the agenda of Ram mandir.
Like BJP, its rival RJD has also changed its strategy by wooing OBC as well as the SC to go beyond its intact of Muslim-Yadav equation. On the other hand, Bharatiya Janata Party whose mouth has been burnt from the last defeat due to the caste factor, the introduction of 10% quota bill for economically weaker section can bank them votes of BPL category people.
Also Read: How Shah and Gadkari managed to hold fort in Goa?
Islam, the second most popular religion in Bihar enjoys approximately 16.87% of total population of the state. Therefore, to attract the Mohammedan voters, Nitish Kumar might be handy for the NDA to attract votes in their account from this section of the society.
Bihar Religious Data (2011-2018 Census report)
Description Population Percentage
Hindu 86,078,686 82.69%
Muslim 17,557,809 16.87%
Not Available 252,157 0.24%
Christian 129,247 0.12%
Buddhist 25,453 0.02%
Sikh 23,779 0.02%
Jain 18,914 0.02%
Reasons why Nitish Kumar is an asset for BJP
- When Nitish Kumar became the Chief Minister of Bihar the GDP was -3.2% but now it is 10.3%
- In alliance with the BJP, the JD(U) came to power in Bihar for the first time in 2005 and Nitish Kumar took charge as the Chief Minister. Nitish went on win two more Assembly elections after that — in 2010 in alliance with the BJP and in 2015 with Lalu Yadav RJD. In general, Nitish received appreciation for the work done in Bihar but what earned him the title “sushasan babu” was the immense improvement in the law and order situation and betterment of roads.
- According to a study conducted by Asian Development Research Institute (ADRI) after liquor ban in Bihar:
- There has been a 66% dip in cases of kidnapping for ransom and 28% dip in cases of murder.
- Women started to get more respect. 58% women said their decisions in household matters were given more respect, 22% felt their opinions were taken in village matters too.