The wheat stocks in India have fallen to a 16 year lowest. In fact, the stock is below the buffer level of wheat in the government stock (138 lakh MT), which required to cover three months of operational requirement of 108 lakh MT as well an additional 30 lakh MT required in case of any procurement shortfall. But this time before the start of the procurement season it was only 75 lakh MT. Earlier, the lowest stock was recorded in 2007-08 at 58 lakh MT.
This stock was 84 lakh MT in 2023, 180 lakh MT in 2022 and 280 lakh MT in 2021. Since the Russia-Ukraine war, the government stock of wheat, not only in India but the whole world has been decreasing. However, the government has so far purchased a total of 264 lakh MT of wheat, but the government target is 372 lakh MT. The procurement time has also been extended till June 22, but only negligible wheat is arriving in the procurement centres. In such a situation, wheat may have to be imported immediately to meet the needs of the government schemes for the poor, i.e. 'Free Grain Scheme' and Below Poverty Line ration card.
Also due to fog and wind, the per acre productivity of wheat was reduced by nearly 5 quintals. Under normal conditions the yield is up to 20 quintals. In Madhya Pradesh, there has been purchase of 22.67 lakh MT less than previous records.
The granary of the country, Punjab, saw the highest purchase of wheat. A record purchase of 132.11 lakh metric MT of wheat was made in the mandis of Punjab in the Rabi season of 2024. Wheat procurement increased by 5%. In this, 124.56 lakh metric MT of wheat was produced by government agencies and 7.55 lakh metric MT at the private level.
Prices may increase by ₹3 in 15 days
Experts say that mills are waiting for the open market auction of government stocks before the festive season starting from Raksha Bandhan. Wheat is priced at Rs 2600-2700 per quintal in the open market. In such a situation, the price is likely to increase by Rs 3 per kg in 15 days. Flour made by purchasing expensive wheat is likely to cost Rs 30-31 per kg. Currently it sells at Rs 28 per kg.