A major prediction has been announced by Goldman Sachs, according to which, by the year-end, the gold prices might rise to $3,700 per troy ounce. The major reasons cited were stronger-than-expected central bank demand and a deepening recession.
The investment bank, which had previously forecast last year-end at $3,300, now anticipates central bank demand to average 80 tons monthly, up from a prior estimate of 70 tons and a prior 2022 baseline of 17 tons monthly.
The bank also experienced a spike in gold ETF flows due to recession concerns, with economists putting the probability of a US recession in the next 12 months at 45 percent.
Spot gold has kept climbing since last year, making several records and achieving over 23 percent in increases thus far this year. Bullion reached over $3,200 an ounce for the first time on Friday.
The bank's analysis further indicates that in the medium term, their revised forecast losses will be biased upwards. Goldman estimates that if the central bank purchases an average of 100 tonnes per month, gold may reach $3,810/tj by the end of 2025. If there is a reversal towards ETFs, ETF flows may return to pre-epidemic levels, which may support prices to $3,880/tj by year-end.
But if growth beats forecasts as policy uncertainty dissipates, ETF flows will return to their rate-based expectations at end-year prices of $3,550/tj, Goldman added.
Following is a list of the most recent gold price predictions for 2025 and 2026 (in dollars per ounce):
- Goldman Sachs predicts the rate of gold will be high at $3,295 $3,700 - by the end of 2025
- Commerzbank $3,000
- HSBC predicts $3,015, $2,915, $2,750 by 2027, and $2,350 long-term
- Deutsche Bank forecasts $3,139, $3,700 $3,350 by December 2025
- UBS $3,500 - $3,000 by end-2025
- BofA $3,063 $3,350
- Macquarie states $2,951 $2,675
- Citi Research $2,900 $2,800 0-3 month estimate $3,200 and 6-12 month estimate $3,000; by end-2025, $3,500
- JPMorgan $2,863 $3,019 2025 $3,000 as of Q4
- Morgan Stanley $2,763 $2,450